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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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Showing 16 to 20 news of total 6871 |
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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