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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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