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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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