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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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