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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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Showing 36 to 40 news of total 6871 |
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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