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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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