We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
|
|
|
Showing 41 to 45 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
