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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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