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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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