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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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