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Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
 The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a year earlier. European natural gas and South African coal prices reached all-time highs in March and April, while U.S. natural gas prices reached their highest level since 2008. The surge in prices partly reflects the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine; in 2020, Russia accounted for one-quarter of global exports of natural gas and just under one-fifth of coal exports. Beyond the impact of the war, demand for natural gas and coal has been robust, rising by about 5 and 6 percent, respectively, in 2021 amid a strong post-pandemic recovery, with both reaching record highs.
The war in Ukraine is disrupting trade in energy. Europe relies heavily on Russia for imports of natural gas and coal. In response to the war, the European Union imposed a ban on imports of Russian coal starting in August 2022 and has pledged to reduce imports of Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of the year. While some of Russia’s coal can be redirected to other countries, this will be costly as coal is bulky and expensive to transport. Redirection of natural gas is even more limited due to a lack of transportation infrastructure — 70% of Russia’s exports to Europe are by pipeline.
EU turns to alternative LNG suppliers. The EU has sharply increased its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to rebuild depleted inventories and diversify its suppliers. Inventories have risen rapidly in the last few months, although they remain slightly below the five-year average. In addition, EU countries are investing in additional infrastructure to facilitate LNG trade, such as new terminals, and the EU has also announced plans to sharply increase renewable energy capacity. Energy policies in Europe, however, have large spillover effects on other countries. For example, the sharp increase in EU imports of LNG has forced other countries that rely on LNG, notably emerging markets in Asia, to turn to coal.
Amid high prices, U.S. exports of LNG soar. The United States exported 11.5 billion cubic meters per day in the first half of 2022, a record high and equal to 12% of its domestic production. U.S exports to the EU and the United Kingdom have more than tripled compared to last year, such that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of U.S. LNG exports in the first half of 2022. The increase in U.S. LNG exports reflects the high spot prices of European natural gas compared to both the U.S. and Asia prices. U.S. LNG exports have recently declined, however, due to an explosion at a major LNG terminal. This disruption to supplies is expected to last until October.
Coal production rises amid high prices and shortages. Although global coal production increased by nearly 6% in 2021, coal shortages in China and India led to policies aimed at increasing domestic production. Because the coal (and natural gas) shortages have persisted, additional policy measures were introduced earlier this year. India, for example, announced plans to reopen 100 coal mines that had previously been considered uneconomic.
Risks to the natural gas and coal outlook. After a projected sharp increase in 2022, natural gas and coal prices are expected to moderately decline in 2023, although they will remain much higher than their five-year average. The duration of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the extent of its disruption to trade in coal and natural gas are the biggest uncertainties facing the outlook for the market. A sharp reduction in Russia’s exports to the EU, for example, could cause prices to spike, particularly if it occurred during the winter period when demand is high. Exports of natural gas from Russia to Europe have already fallen due to maintenance and other technical issues with the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Prices also remain vulnerable to weather-related conditions and import policies that can affect trade patterns and push up costs. This is particularly the case given the very limited global spare production capacity for natural gas.
By Peter Nagle & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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