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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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