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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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