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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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