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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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