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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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