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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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