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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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