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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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