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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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