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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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