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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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