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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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