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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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