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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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