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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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