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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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