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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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