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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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