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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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