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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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