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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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