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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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