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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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