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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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