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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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