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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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