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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
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