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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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