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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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