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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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