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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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