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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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