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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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