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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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