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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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