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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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