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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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