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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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