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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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