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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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