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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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