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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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