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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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