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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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