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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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