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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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