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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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