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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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