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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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