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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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