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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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