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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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