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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
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