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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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