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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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